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When the US and Israel started bombing Iran on Feb 28, President Donald Trump termed the campaign a mere “excursion” that would last for a few weeks. But what started as a limited campaign has turned into a conflict that has yet to see an end. The conflict has not only jolted the global economy and disrupted oil supplies but also changed the Middle East forever.
When this conflict ends is a separate question. The key issue is whether this war has dented the US image as the world’s pre-eminent military power. There are growing indications that it has, at least to some extent. American media reports have raised concerns about depleted American weapons stockpiles. Reuters reported this month that the US Army had used “virtually all” of its ATACMS and Precision Strike Missile supplies during the Iran war, while another source said nearly half of the global Tomahawk stockpile had also been used. The significance goes beyond Iran. These are weapons that Washington would need in a major conflict involving Russia or China. The concern, therefore, is not that America has suddenly become militarily weak. Rather, the war has exposed the limits of a military machine expected to deter several major adversaries simultaneously.
That brings us to the critical question: Is US global power dwindling, and how far has this conflict damaged America? History offers some perspective. The Vietnam War remains the classic example of the limits of American military power. The US possessed overwhelming technological superiority but failed to achieve its political objectives and eventually withdrew. The fall of Saigon in 1975 became a powerful symbol of American defeat. Yet Vietnam did not end American power. The US economy remained dominant, its alliances survived and, eventually, Washington emerged stronger. The Cold War ended with the Soviet Union collapsing in 1991. Iraq offers another lesson. The US-led invasion rapidly destroyed Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, but the subsequent occupation became a costly and prolonged struggle. Washington eventually withdrew without creating the stable political order it had envisioned. Afghanistan was even more damaging to America’s image. After two decades of war, US forces left in 2021 and the Taliban returned to power. Yet again, the US did not cease to be the world’s leading military and economic power.
So history suggests that military setbacks do not automatically translate into the decline of a superpower. But there is an important caveat. During Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the US was operating in a fundamentally different international environment. China had not yet emerged as a peer competitor. Russia was far weaker after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Washington, despite its setbacks, enjoyed unmatched military, economic and technological dominance. The Iran war is different. For the first time, America is fighting a prolonged conflict while simultaneously facing a rising China, a militarily assertive Russia and multiple regional challenges. Washington must therefore think not only about winning in Iran, but also about preserving enough military capacity to deter adversaries elsewhere. That is where the real damage could lie. The Iran war may have dented America’s image of invincibility. It has exposed vulnerabilities in stockpiles, highlighted the costs of sustained military deployments and demonstrated that even overwhelming airpower cannot necessarily deliver a quick political outcome.
But a dent is not a collapse. The US still possesses unmatched global military reach, a vast network of alliances, the world’s most powerful financial system and extraordinary technological capacity. The Iran war may therefore prove to be a setback for American power rather than its decline. The bigger question is whether Washington learns from it or whether the demands of a new era of great-power competition stretch American power beyond its limits. That distinction will matter greatly as Washington confronts a world no longer shaped by once uncontested American superpower.
